Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market fashioned a weekly Crude Oil wedge bear flag (Oct 24, Nov 7, and Nov 22). The bears should create sustained follow-through promoting to extend the percentages of a breakout beneath the triangle. The bulls see the present transfer as a three-legged pullback – a wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 6) and desire a reversal to retest the highest of the triangle.
Crude oil futures
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bear bar closing close to its low with an extended tail above.
- Final week, we mentioned the market is in a decent buying and selling vary. Merchants would see if the bears might create a robust entry bar or if the market would commerce barely decrease however stall and reverse increased.
- This week was a bear entry bar though the candlestick had quite a lot of overlapping vary with the prior 7 candlesticks.
- The bears obtained a follow-through bear bar. They need a retest of the October/September lows and the underside of the triangle from a wedge bear flag (Oct 24, Nov 7, and Nov 22).
- They need the bear development line or the 20-week EMA to behave as resistance. To date that is the case.
- They need to create sustained follow-through promoting to extend the percentages of a breakout beneath the triangle.
- The bulls see the present transfer as a three-legged pullback – a wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 6) and desire a reversal to retest the highest of the triangle.
- The issue with the bull’s case is that they haven’t but been capable of create sustained follow-through shopping for above the 20-week EMA within the final 7 weeks.
- If the market trades decrease, they need the October/September lows or the underside of the triangle to behave as assist.
- Since this week’s candlestick is a bear bar closing close to its low, it’s a promote sign bar for subsequent week.
- Due to the repeated failure to interrupt above the 20-week EMA, we might begin to see extra promoting stress seem.
- The market might commerce at the very least a little bit decrease.
- For now, merchants will see if the bears can create a breakout beneath the wedge bear flag (Oct 24, Nov 7, and Nov 22) and check the October/September lows and the underside of the triangle.
- Or will the market proceed to commerce throughout the 7-week tight buying and selling vary?
- The market has been buying and selling sideways with overlapping candlesticks, poor follow-through and frequent reversals which implies the market is in a decent buying and selling vary.
- The center of the buying and selling vary is an space of steadiness and a magnet.
- The decrease third of the big buying and selling vary may be the purchase zone of buying and selling vary merchants.
- The market is in a big buying and selling vary (Trading vary excessive: September 29, Trading vary low: Could 4).
- Merchants will BLSH (Purchase Low, Promote Excessive) till there’s a breakout from both route with sustained follow-through shopping for/promoting.
The Every day crude oil chart
- The market traded increased earlier within the week. Wednesday traded increased however reversed right into a bear bar closing beneath the 20-day EMA with follow-through promoting on Thursday and Friday.
- Beforehand, we mentioned that the market is in a decent buying and selling vary. Merchants would see if the bulls might create follow-through shopping for breaking far above the November 7 excessive or if the market would stall across the present ranges adopted by one other leg all the way down to retest the October or September lows as an alternative.
- To date, the bulls haven’t but been capable of create follow-through shopping for breaking far above the 20-day EMA and the market is making decrease highs.
- The bulls see the current transfer as a three-legged pullback, a wedge bull flag (Oct 19, Nov 18, and Dec 6).
- They need a reversal from a wedge bull flag and the next low main development reversal to retest the highest of the triangle and the October 8 excessive.
- The bulls should create consecutive bull bars closing close to their highs, buying and selling far above the 20-day EMA and the bear development line to extend the percentages of a retest of the October 8 excessive.
- The bears desire a retest of the October and September lows. They need a breakout beneath the underside of the triangle.
- They need a breakout from the wedge bear flag (Nov 7, Nov 22, and Dec 4) or the big Low 4 sample.
- They need to create follow-through promoting to extend the percentages of breaking beneath the triangle sample.
- To date, the candlesticks within the final 7 weeks have quite a lot of overlapping ranges which signifies tight buying and selling vary value motion.
- Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a buying and selling vary.
- Due to the repeated failure to create sustained shopping for above the 20-day EMA, we may even see extra promoting stress seem.
- The market might commerce at the very least a little bit decrease.
- Merchants will see if the bears can create follow-through promoting breaking beneath the Low 4 sample.
- Or will the market proceed to cut sideways throughout the tight buying and selling vary as an alternative?
- The decrease third of the big buying and selling vary may be the purchase zone of buying and selling vary merchants.
- The center of the buying and selling vary is an space of steadiness and a magnet.
- Merchants will BLSH (Purchase Low, Promote Excessive) till there’s a breakout from both route with sustained follow-through shopping for/promoting.
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