Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures
The NASDAQ Emini futures August month candlestick is a foul H1 purchase sign bar at EMA – exponential transferring common. It’s a huge doji bar with primarily no physique and an extended tail under.
The week is a bear doji bar with a tail under. It pulled again under final week and is reversing from the weekly EMA.
July and August are actually huge bars. They’re virtually double in measurement in comparison with bars earlier within the 12 months.
The quarterly bar is a extremely huge outdoors doji bar as a result of it’s vary is from the July excessive to the August low, and the market is at present across the midpoint. Given the scale of the quarterly bar, it’s seemingly that the September month will keep inside the vary of the present quarter, or no less than not breakout past it.
This outdoors bar is uncommon in that it represents a leg down from the excessive of the quarter to simply under the prior quarter and is at present on a leg up. Outdoors bars want follow-through bars to proceed, and nonetheless normally reverse inside two bars.
Assuming this quarter ends within the higher half of the bar, what occurs subsequent quarter?
If October month is a bear reversal bar close to the highest of the present quarterly bar, it could signify a reversal. If as an alternative October is a bull bar, then we wait to see if November is a bear bar. Earlier stories have talked about how this 12 months will seemingly not be a superb entry bar on the yearly chart which might imply no less than a tail on the highest given this 12 months is already a bull bar. Given this, it’s extra seemingly no less than two of the three months subsequent quarter are a doji bar or a bear bar.
As a substitute if this quarter ends within the backside half of the bar, then bulls will strive for a reversal bar across the backside of the present quarterly outdoors bar.
The opposite solution to describe the above is an increasing triangle (ET), the place the market goes above the July excessive and reverses and goes under the August low and reverses until there’s a breakout.
NASDAQ 100 Emini futures
The Month-to-month NASDAQ chart
- The August month bar is a doji bar with huge tail under.
- At one level within the month, the bar was a giant bear bar. It virtually touched the month-to-month EMA and reversed.
- The tails on the July and August months represents buying and selling vary – There are seemingly sellers above and patrons under.
- The physique hole with the 2021 excessive shut remains to be open. The market went under it and reversed.
- If the market is transitioning to a buying and selling vary, then that physique hole ought to shut.
- So, what’s potential within the subsequent few months – The market may go up for a few bars however will seemingly discover sellers. Given final month was a foul promote sign bar, it’s potential the market will go as much as no less than the highest half of the higher tail.
- Or the market may go down for a month or two, shut the physique hole, type a greater purchase sign on the month-to-month EMA and discover patrons.
The Weekly NASDAQ chart
- The week is a bear doji bar with a tail reversing from the weekly EMA.
- It’s a pullback within the bull leg up of the final three weeks, and a purchase sign bar for the following leg up. On condition that this week is a bear bar, it isn’t a superb purchase sign bar.
- As talked about final week, the month-to-month bar had already been so huge that it was unlikely for this week to be one other bull development bar. It was extra more likely to be a doji bar or bear bar. This week met that expectation.
- A bear that bought the shut of the bull reversal bar of 8/5 and bought the shut of the small bull bar final week was capable of exit breakeven on the weekly EMA this week.
- Bears will purpose for double-top across the July excessive shut.
- Bulls wish to get a few sturdy bull closes above the July excessive shut, to allow them to sign {that a} new bull leg is beginning.
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