Nasdaq 100 Breakout Pullback Beneath 7-29 Low?

Market Overview: NASDAQ 100 Emini Futures

The NASDAQ Emini futures week is a doji bull bar with a small physique and an extended tail beneath. It’s extra doubtless a breakout pullback beneath 7-29 low because it fell far sufficient beneath final week’s low although it seems like a reversal bar.

On the each day chart, the market had huge days on 4 of the 5 days of the week.

The month-to-month chart is a really huge bar, with a large bear physique however an enormous tail beneath. There are 3 extra weeks left within the month, although it isn’t doubtless the vary of the bar will prolong past this week’s low. Bears wish to shut the month close to the low, whereas bulls would really like the other.

NASDAQ 100 Emini futures

The Weekly NASDAQ chart

• The week is a bull doji bar with a small physique and an extended tail beneath.
• Whereas final week’s report had stated this week would doubtless be a doji bar round final week’s shut, the market early Monday morning was an enormous bear pattern bar far beneath final week’s low.
• It is a shock, so doubtless there are extra sellers above than patrons, and the market will make one other try on the low of this week. Bulls will want a micro double-bottom (DB) not less than.
• This week will doubtless behave just like the week of 2-22-2022, which was adopted by bear bars the next two weeks and the market fell beneath the low of the week of 2-22 (proven by the pink shaded area on the chart).
• The query to ask right here is – If a bull had been to purchase above this week, and put a cease beneath the low of the week, is it a 60% likelihood their cease will get hit earlier than they make 1X? Sure, it’s doubtless their cease will get hit. Through which case, any person shopping for right here should go for 2X the Threat/Reward, and which is why there’ll doubtless be extra sellers than patrons.
• Does that imply there couldn’t be a few bull bars above to the exponential shifting common (EMA)? Presumably. It’s attainable, bears will wait until the weekly EMA to promote.
• Identical to the 2-22-2022 bar although, there are doubtless extra patrons beneath the low of the bar than above. The low of the bar can be near the month-to-month EMA which ought to discover patrons.

The Each day NASDAQ chart

• This week had huge days every single day besides Friday. Monday gapped down, went beneath the shut of April 19^th and ended the day with an enormous tail beneath.
• Tuesday discovered sellers above Monday excessive and ended the day as a doji bar across the prime half of Monday. Wednesday was a bear exterior bar closing close to the low of Tuesday.
• Thursday was an enormous exterior up bar closing slightly below Wednesday excessive. Friday was a bull doji follow-through bar, with a detailed above Thursday’s excessive.
• Thursday and Friday are sufficient of a shock up that there ought to be a 2^nd leg sideways to up.
• The report from a few weeks in the past had stated that there have been just a few open bull physique gaps from the excessive of March that may doubtless shut. These closed final week.
• The subsequent attention-grabbing bear goal is the low shut of April 19^th. This was a bear micro-channel the place the shut of 4/19 bear bar was not sufficiently examined. It was examined on Monday earlier than the common buying and selling hours.
• It’s prone to be examined once more throughout the common buying and selling hours, and a detailed beneath that shut as nicely.
• The each day and weekly EMA are coming collectively once more for the primary time since October 2023. At this level, each the EMAs will doubtless be resistance not less than on the primary try up.
• Bears would really like Monday to hole down and begin its method down. Bulls need to take the market to the EMA whether or not by going up or sideways.

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