Open home session (November 1) recap by Louie Wong
Go to Louie’s YouTube channel for extra worth motion evaluation (Chinese language)
Transcript
Everyone knows that when you have a pair of development bars with no less than considered one of them being large enough, there’s a greater likelihood to see the development from the open. Which is the case right here, however generally it is also a lure like right here, enormous bear bar, good comply with by means of, nevertheless it turned out to be a bear lure and was reversed.
So what makes a distinction? Why some succeeded and the others failed? And I feel the reply is goal.
Hello everybody. That is Louie. On this video, I’m going to recap Al’s dwell buying and selling session on November 1st. And I wish to speak primarily about when you’ve got consecutive development bars from the open, how do you inform whether or not it’s the start of a development or it’s really a lure? Proper after the market opened, Al was fairly bullish and assured that we’ll have a bull development from the open.
There’s a 70 % likelihood that you simply’ll get no less than two legs up, and a 70 % likelihood you’ll get some type of a measured transfer up. And when he noticed the acceleration of bar 12, he mainly made a conclusion that that is just about for at this time. So at this time’s in all probability not going to get a lot larger, and subsequently in all probability not going to go a lot greater.
Most probably we’re going to begin to enter a buying and selling vary. Everyone knows that when you have a pair of development bars with no less than considered one of them being large enough, There’s a greater likelihood to see the development from the open. Which is the case right here, however generally it is also a lure like right here, enormous bear bar, good comply with by means of, nevertheless it turned out to be a bear lure and was reversed.
So what makes a distinction? Why some succeeded within the others failed. And I feel the reply is goal. On November 1st, Bulls have a cluster of targets above right here, and let’s check out the place they’re. This pair of massive bear bars, the bears wished the measure to maneuver down, however anytime you’ve got a giant transfer like that, and also you’re eager about the measure transfer, you’ve acquired to assume that the measure transfer might be in both route.
So don’t simply assume that the measure transfer needs to be, um, down. It may very well be up. These computer systems knew that this unload may have an upside breakout and a measure transfer up. And yesterday’s excessive is a extremely necessary worth. Fairly often, if there may be necessary resistance, right here we’ve, you already know, an entire bunch of stuff all collectively.
Final week’s low, we acquired this measure transfer, the pink line. You’ve acquired the measure transfer the inexperienced line of the 60 minute transferring common right here. Yesterday’s excessive. Um, you’ve got an entire bunch of resistance right here and now we’ve an even bigger purchased our 12. the market reached as much as seize that resistance. It will appeal to revenue takers, the holes promoting on the lawns.
So bulls are going to be fairly fast to get out. The very first thing is yesterday’s excessive, which can also be the open of yesterday. When you’ve got this, the primary bear bar, it has no higher tail in any respect. It’s often a really robust magnet. For instance, on this case, which is February fifth, 2024, this bear development was reversed close to bar 18 and the open was examined later within the day.
Right here we’ve a buying and selling vary after consecutive promote climaxes. Attempt to check the open right here, acquired very shut. And finally this open was examined on November fifth. So this can be a essential goal or magnet. One other goal is the inverse measure transfer of those two enormous bear bars. They’re the most important bear bars late within the bear development.
As quickly as bar 79 went above the breakout level right here, it additionally went above the low of bar 74. So gaps have been closed, and this grew to become an exhaustion hole. 60 % of the time, the market will go no less than a bit of bit above the highest of this promote climax. And the market really broke strongly above that. Bar 2 bull breakout.
And bar three is a comply with by means of bar. It’s a doji, nevertheless it additionally has a bull physique, which is one tick excessive. And it’s not a coincidence. The bulls tried actually laborious to make it an appropriate comply with by means of to persuade merchants that they’re in management. And that’s why there are extra patrons than sellers under its low.
Plus, the gaps are nonetheless open. The market didn’t go under this excessive and this excessive. So there’s gaps in between and extra possible this can be a measuring hole. Whereas right here, this grew to become an exhaustion hole. It is a slide from video course 20A measure transfer. Everytime you see a powerful breakout, there’s a measure transfer goal, however it may be in both route.
On this case, 60 % of the time there might be a measure transfer to the upside. Nevertheless, the market reversed down strongly. And that is precisely what Al stated within the video course. You’ll pay shut consideration right here. At this potential help, he needs to see if the value can bounce from this help. Or the market completely ignored this potential help, so bear breakout, good comply with by means of.
Then we’re going to the inverse measure transfer. Similar factor right here. There may very well be a resistance right here. It’s additionally the highest of this buying and selling vary. Nevertheless, we broke strongly above that and we’ve good comply with by means of and the hole remained open. So these two bear bars, as a substitute of getting a measure transfer down, now it’s extra possible an inverse measure transfer to the upside, which is correct right here at yesterday’s excessive.
And once more, this isn’t a coincidence. I’ll speak about that within the coaching room as nicely. Yesterday’s low and at this time’s open. Anytime you’ve got two necessary costs, you all the time acquired to be considering They could generate a 3rd necessary worth, and there’s a measured transfer from these two costs. Potential goal, the computer systems know that two necessary costs generate a 3rd necessary worth, and so they’ll usually be revenue takers.
It’s a resistance stage, so that they’ll usually be revenue takers on the measured transfer. And you’ll see there’s a bit of little bit of revenue taking right here. As you’ll be able to see within the video clip, the market went one or two ticks above this measurable goal. Computer systems promote restrict orders have been crammed and the market has a bit of little bit of pullback.
That’s revenue taking. And that is the character of measure transfer. Two necessary costs generate a 3rd worth. What else is necessary? Yesterday’s shut. So from yesterday’s near the open and measure transfer up. Proper right here. And there may be revenue taking. Let me present you guys some additional examples from yesterday’s near at this time’s open measure, transfer down the targets proper right here.
There’s revenue taking from yesterday’s shut or excessive. They’re shut to one another to at this time’s open and measure, transfer down. I wish to speak a bit of bit extra about this open. We have now to bear development bars from the open. So it’s affordable to quick on the shut of bar two. Have a look at this. In case you take this quick and put your cease above the excessive of bar 1, the value hit 1R very exactly.
So there’s a tick failure. And that’s why it’s necessary to put your restrict order 1 or 2 ticks above, simply to verify your orders might be crammed. So that is Bear’s goal. Therefore, a help. And there are merchants and laptop applications seeking to make a ten level scalp, which is correct right here. So that is additionally a goal.
And we’ve talked about this measure transfer, this orange line earlier than. So this space is definitely revenue taking space. When you’ve got sufficient bears taking revenue right here, and bulls know that as nicely, they’re going to purchase with restrict orders. Each bulls and bears are shopping for, and that’s what triggered this opening reversal.
Now let’s check out October twenty ninth. Why this turned out to be a bear lure and also you shouldn’t be promoting right here. The day prior to this, the titanium vary day, Breakout measure transfer down proper right here. There are gaps between this shut and all these lows. And this hole finally was closed. It’s Bayer’s goal, therefore potential help.
Hole down from yesterday’s near at this time’s open. Measure transfer down proper right here. So the primary bear bar already hit many of the goal. The market has been on this purchase zone already. So for many merchants on the shut of bar two, it’s higher to be flat. Simply wait to see extra data. And I can’t go quick till I see one other bear bar closing strongly under this space.
If we do get that, then the market is telling us the bears aren’t happy but. They’ve additional targets. In any other case, the market may simply reverse sharply like what you see right here. I wish to speak a bit of bit extra about this. Let’s say we don’t know what’s on the left. So that is only a robust breakout and a great comply with by means of for the bears.
So it’s affordable to promote the shut of two and put your cease above bar one. Because the cease is like 15 factors away, the preliminary place needs to be small. Bears who noticed the shut of bar 2 noticed bar 3 and so they have been disillusioned. They knew they have been trapped. So that they tried to repair this. They promote extra on the shut of bar 3, which can also be close to 50 % pullback of bar 1.
Bar 4 went one tick under the breakeven worth. So bears purchase restrict orders have been crammed. So bears purchase restrict orders have been crammed. And so they acquired our break even bar 5 tells you that every one the bears simply gave up. So in the event you can handle the commerce accurately, more often than not, even it’s a lure, you will get our break even with out a loss earlier than you cease being hit, nevertheless it is probably not price it.
It’s important to handle your danger very well. It’s important to handle the commerce very well. So it’s not for newbies. Comparable state of affairs right here on November fifth, bar one bar to hit yesterday’s excessive immediately. This bull breakout could be the start of a development. Or, it is also a vacuum check inside a coaching vary.
And right here, one, pull again, two, could be a second leg lure. How do you inform the distinction? You wait to see extra data. Bar three, very outstanding tails under. It’s not a great trying cell sign bar. It’s not robust sufficient for the bears. Most significantly, bar 4, it closed above ESA’s excessive. It closed above the exponential transferring common on the 60 minute chart.
And the hole remained open right here. So now we all know this could be a purchase the shut bull development. So you should purchase the shut of bar 4, put your cease one tick under bar three or bar two. Right here’s one R two R and it’s additionally the third push to our third push. It’s all the time affordable to take no less than partial revenue or like outset within the coaching room.
It is a head and shoulder backside. The primary goal is from the pinnacle to the fitting shoulder. Measure transfer up, which is round right here, an important worth proper now on this pink line. Sure, it’s scorching. Plus, it’s that measure transfer from yesterday’s low to the highest of that cellular phone max. And it’s additionally on the 60 minute transferring common.
So we’ve acquired a cluster of magnets and low final week. So we’ve a cluster of magnets up right here and the targets for like, to get above all of them. I don’t assume the bulls will get above all of them. They could check them, however I don’t assume we’re going to interrupt considerably above them at this time. I talked in regards to the significance of figuring out the place the goal is.
I feel in truth, it’s one of the vital necessary issues in buying and selling as a result of. As soon as you already know the place the goal is, you’ll be able to enter for any purpose. A pair weeks in the past, I made an English video in addition to in my very own channel, just a few Chinese language movies introducing what has been occurring within the China market. And um, this is likely one of the shares I’ve been speaking about in buying and selling.
Initially, I entered on October tenth. Purchase and maintain. And I sometimes when out there scalped a bit of bit alongside the best way up simply to decrease my unit value. However right here you’ll be able to really purchase in any time and any worth for no matter purpose, as a result of you already know, there might be a second leg up and this earlier excessive might be examined like we did right here earlier at this time.
Truly, I scouted in and purchased extra at yesterday’s shut. And it’s type of attention-grabbing that. Um, earlier at this time I ought to be taking partial revenue at new excessive, so now I should purchase them again at a lower cost. However I used to be making this video and I missed some trades. Nevertheless it’s completely tremendous, this won’t be the very best worth, and really I’m very completely satisfied to scaling decrease.
I did place a purchase restrict order down right here when the market opened. nearly acquired crammed perhaps 10 cents away or one thing. However in any case, that is simply an instance. If you already know the place we’re going, you’ll be able to enter for any purpose. You should purchase the bear shut like I did, betting on the bear reversal would fail. You should purchase the shut of this bull breakout as a result of it appears like the start of this second leg up.
And you should purchase when the value breaks above this bull flag. A couple of months in the past, in the future I caught an Uber from the airport again to my residence, and we have been so caught within the visitors jam that mainly we weren’t transferring in any respect. However abruptly, the driving force’s voice navigation stated one thing that actually touched me.
It says, The street forward is congested. However we’ll finally attain our vacation spot. And I used to be like, man, buying and selling is precisely the identical factor as driving. Generally you’ll have deep pullback. Generally you bought caught within the coaching vary that isn’t going wherever, however finally we’ll attain our goal. However the query for you is the place does your confidence come from?
If you hearken to Al, he’s so chilled. He is aware of the place the market goes as a result of he has been buying and selling and looking out on the charts tick by tick for the previous 40 years. And Rose, Rose is extraordinarily good at calculating revenue targets. In case you hearken to her fastidiously, you already know, she trades with confidence, not simply confidence, she trades with religion as a result of she’s earning profits day by day and he or she know it really works.
So confidence comes from information. It comes from apply and profitable expertise. And that’s what I wish to share with you guys in at this time’s video. In fact, I’ll talk about many different issues as nicely, however due to restricted time, making such a video is type of time consuming, nevertheless it’s so price it. I discovered a lot from learning Al’s movies, and I hope you do as nicely.
Thanks for listening, and have an excellent day.
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