Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures
The market fashioned a month-to-month Crude Oil decrease excessive, closing the month-to-month candlestick with a protracted tail above. The bears need the market to type one other decrease excessive and a failed breakout from the triangle sample. The bulls hope to get a retest of the July 15 excessive, even when it types a decrease excessive.
Crude oil futures
The Month-to-month crude oil chart
- The January month-to-month Crude Oil candlestick was a bull bar closing in its decrease half with a protracted tail above.
- Final month, we stated the market should still commerce sideways to up (maybe within the first half of the month). Merchants would see if the bulls might create a follow-through bull bar or if the market would commerce larger however shut the month-to-month candlestick with a protracted tail above or a bear physique as an alternative (failed breakout from ii sample).
- The market traded larger within the first half of the month adopted by sideways to down from mid-month onwards.
- The bears need the market to type one other decrease excessive and a failed breakout from the triangle sample.
- They need a reversal from a double high bear flag (Apr 12 and Jan 15).
- If the market trades larger, they need the July or April highs to behave as resistance.
- The bulls bought a reversal from a double backside bull flag (Jun 4 and Sep 10) and a bigger double backside bull flag (Dec 13 and Sep 10).
- They bought a breakout above the ii (inside inside) sample and a measured transfer (based mostly on the peak of the ii sample) which took them to the July excessive space.
- The candlestick had a protracted tail above which signifies that the bulls will not be but as robust as they hope to be.
- They should create follow-through shopping for to extend the chances of retesting the buying and selling vary excessive (Sept 28).
- On the very least, they hope to get a retest of the July 15 excessive, even when it types a decrease excessive.
- Up to now, the market stays in a buying and selling vary.
- Merchants will see if the bulls can create a retest of the July 15 excessive.
- Or will the market commerce again into the triangle sample as an alternative, testing the 20-month EMA?
- The center of the big buying and selling vary (across the 20-month EMA) is an space of steadiness and a magnet.
- Merchants will BLSH (Purchase Low, Promote Excessive) till there’s a breakout from both route with sustained follow-through shopping for/promoting.
- Meaning shopping for within the decrease third and promoting within the higher third of the buying and selling vary.
- Poor follow-through and reversals are the hallmarks of a buying and selling vary.
The Weekly crude oil chart
- This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a follow-through bear bar closing in its decrease half with a small tail under.
- Final week, we stated that merchants would see if the bears might create a powerful follow-through bear bar or if the market would type a retest of the January 15 excessive within the subsequent 1-2 weeks (even when it types a decrease excessive or a one-or-two bar pullback retest) as an alternative.
- The bears bought a follow-through bear bar testing close to the 20-week EMA.
- They bought a reversal from a double high bear flag (Jul 5 and Jan 15).
- They see the current transfer as a purchase vacuum and a bull leg inside a buying and selling vary.
- They need a retest of the center of the buying and selling vary (across the 20-week EMA space) adopted by a retest of the underside of the triangle.
- If the market trades larger, they need a reversal from a decrease excessive main development reversal. They need the July excessive to behave as resistance.
- The bulls see the final two weeks as a pullback.
- They hope to get a retest and a breakout above the July excessive.
- On the very least, they need a small sideways to up leg to retest the current leg excessive excessive (Jan 15), even when it types a decrease excessive.
- If the market trades decrease, they need the 20-week EMA to behave as help.
- Up to now, the market stays in a big buying and selling vary.
- The current transfer might nonetheless solely be a purchase vacuum and a bull leg inside a buying and selling vary.
- Merchants will BLSH (Purchase Low, Promote Excessive) till there’s a breakout from both route with sustained follow-through shopping for/promoting.
- Meaning promoting within the higher third and shopping for within the decrease third of the buying and selling vary.
- The center of the big buying and selling vary is an space of steadiness and a magnet.
- For now, merchants will see if the bears can create extra follow-through promoting buying and selling under the 20-week EMA.
- Or will the market stall across the 20-week EMA adopted by a retest of the January 15 excessive within the subsequent few weeks (even when it types a decrease excessive) as an alternative?
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