Market Video Overview: FTSE 100 Futures
Tim Fairweather’s weekly report on the FTSE 100 futures market.
FTSE 100 report transcript
Transcript proof learn to observe…
Hello everybody. And welcome again to a different weekend report. My identify’s Tim Fairweather, and in the present day we’re going to cowl the FTSE 100. So let’s go.
So in the present day we’re trying on the FTSE 100 month-to-month chart. You’ll be able to see to date we’ve acquired a really small bear bar and it’s closing proper up close to the excessive, so slightly bit complicated.
It’s a decent buying and selling vary and we’ve solely acquired another day of the month left on Monday, so I feel it’s going to remain as an inside bar. And you’ll see we’ve had a really attention-grabbing breakout mode sample. We’ve had an inside bar, an out of doors bar, One other outdoors bar and now an inside bar. So we’re beginning to go sideways and it is sensible however as a result of we’ve had three legs up in a bull channel one two three to a brand new all time excessive and merchants are questioning whether or not shopping for above bull bars up right here remains to be a good suggestion.
So is final month or is that this month a superb sign bar for subsequent month? Properly it’s an inside bar which is a pause And merchants typically await extra info. The bulls had a purchase sign bar right here. You’ve acquired to interrupt out to a brand new excessive, a pullback, after which a excessive one by what occurred on their entry bar or didn’t actually go above the place they acquired in.
And I believe. As a result of we’re nonetheless round that worth, it’s not going to be too lengthy earlier than these bulls surrender. So that they really want one thing to occur subsequent month to present them some income to get a brand new excessive. In any other case they’re going to exit. Some bulls additionally purchased within the micro gaps and the gaps beneath, beneath the low of that prior bull bar or this prior bull bar.
It was above the transferring common. And we stated in a earlier report, or we wrote in a earlier report that purchasing a breakout level right here was a very good commerce. And it turned out to be. In case you’re a bear, what do you see? Properly, you’ve acquired a bear inside bar and also you’ve acquired one other bear inside bar. And so that you don’t actually have loads of cell indicators.
Some merchants will see if this triggers beneath, however do you actually wish to promote beneath a bear bar that’s closing on a tie? No, that’s most likely not an awesome commerce. If something, one of the best the bears are going to get is to get again to the transferring common. So it’s not an awesome purchase above. It’s not an awesome promote beneath. So we’d nonetheless must go sideways.
For the bears, they’ve been promoting above prior highs, and this has been a superb commerce for them. Promoting above bear bars and scaling in, and so they’re getting again to the place their authentic entry factors are. And that’s an indication we’re in a channel, and if merchants purchase excessive, they’ll have extra of their place beneath to scale in.
Now that there’s a tail on the bar right here, I believe there’s going to be much more sellers above the excessive, betting that they’ll have the ability to scalp again. We’re nonetheless all the time in lengthy, so merchants ought to be lengthy or flat. But it surely appears to be like like merchants are beginning to enter and commerce it extra like a channel versus what seemed like a very robust breakout.
So subsequent month I’m anticipating sideways to up, however the balls really want to go above that bar, I feel early within the month. In any other case we’d simply drift again all the way down to the transferring common. On the FTSE 100 weekly chart, we had a smallish bull bar, however closing on its excessive and shutting above the transferring common.
This can be a good bull sign, notably in a bull development, we’re above this transferring common, we’re above the 200 transferring common, so we’re positively in a bull channel. The one drawback they’ve is that we’re in a decent buying and selling vary. So we had bull bars up right here. Merchants purchased, they’d to purchase decrease the transferring common, one other bull bar by again to the entry, one other bull bar, most likely going to deal with it once more.
So we’re working our means up in a channel for the bears. They noticed the parabolic wedge and two legs sideways to down and so they see this as some sort of a wedge high. One, two, three, or perhaps one, two, after which they’ll be on the lookout for a wedge backside to a double high, what we name a dueling strains sample, on the lookout for a promote down.
Is that this a superb sign bar for subsequent week? Yeah, it’s a superb bull sign bar. The bears triggered a cell beneath that bar, and now it began to reverse. So if we go strongly above this bar, these merchants have an choice to both scale in or exit, and we may get an enormous breakout to a brand new excessive. I stated a number of weeks in the past, the merchants that have been shopping for the garments and shopping for above bars, and that the merchants purchased above this bar right here, and we by no means fairly acquired again to their entry.
Now, some would have exited, What I stated was that a few of these merchants would exit. If that’s your entry bar, you’re distant from the transferring common. You would possibly simply get out and attempt to purchase decrease. He’s a excessive one. He’s a excessive two. There’s a few choices to purchase later, however I feel we’re going to return up and check this worth as a result of the bears haven’t been capable of get something beneath the transferring common.
So we’re technically nonetheless all the time in lengthy. The cease by no means acquired run right here and bulls usually tend to get a brand new excessive stops, transfer up, after which the swing continues. Bears have had a few probabilities to promote beneath these bear bars. That they had. I collapsed again to the transferring common, however no observe by way of. And you’ll see that little arrow I’ve acquired there.
I do know it’s most likely laborious to see in your display, however I’ve that. And that tells me that lower than 5 % of the bar is beneath the open. That’s an indication of urgency. The second that bar closed, merchants purchased it. And I feel that’s as a result of merchants have been questioning whether or not this was going to go down additional.
This cease entry triggered reverse. They needed to scale in. So bears have been now not promoting right here. Bears have been shopping for again their shorts. So I feel we’re going to run the stops on these bears in addition to these ones. So all the time in lengthy on the month-to-month and all the time in lengthy on the weekly chart. So sideways to up anticipated, we’ve acquired a sign bar on the weekly chart.
So I feel we’ll be hovering round there and the transferring common and persevering with this sort coaching vary, on the lookout for breakout. Thanks very a lot for watching. My identify’s Tim Fairweather and I’ll see you subsequent week.
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